Nigeria’s national debt hit a record N166.79 trillion at the end of June 2026 as the Tinubu-led federal government has started talks with the World Bank for three further loans, amounting to $1.5 billion. Download Interactive Maps
This is coming fewer than four months to the presidential election holding on Saturday, 16 January 16, 2027.
The PUNCH claims that documents obtained from the World Bank show that the planned investment includes three distinct $500m facilities for climate resilience, social protection and early childhood development.
The most urgent is a projected $500m increased investment for the Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes initiative, ACReSAL.
The expected deadline for deliberation by the World Bank’s board is Oct. 29, 2026.
Borrower: Federal Republic of Nigeria Implementing Agency: Federal Ministry of Environment. Download Interactive Maps
The financing would increase the size of ACReSAL from the $700m originally approved to $1.2bn, with the additional $500m coming from the International Development Association, the World Bank’s concessional financing arm.
“The Government of Nigeria has requested AF of $500m to scale up demonstrated project results and strengthen the institutional, operational and financing arrangements needed to sustain integrated landscape management,” the letter added.
The additional finance is expected to help landscape restoration; watershed rehabilitation; erosion and flood management; irrigation and drainage; water harvesting and storage; reforestation and other climate-resilient actions.
Of the additional $500m, $310m is allocated for dryland management, $165m for community climate resilience and $25m for institutional strengthening and project management.
ACReSAL is now being implemented in 19 northern states and Federal Capital Territory to address land degradation, water insecurity, climate vulnerability and falling agricultural output.
Desertification and land degradation harmed an estimated 43 per cent of Nigeria’s geographical area, the World Bank claimed, while the failure to address climate change may lower gross domestic product by around 2.6 per cent annually by 2030 and as much as 6.7 per cent by 2050. Download maps
The second proposed loan is an extra $500m IDA credit for the Household Prosperity and Empowerment-Social Protection Project.
Compared to the ACReSAL facility, the HOPE-SP project is at an earlier stage of preparation. Its technical design assessment is planned on October 30, 2026 and the World Bank has provisionally set March 16, 2027 as its approval date.
The borrower is the Federal Ministry of Finance while the program will be executed by the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction.
The project is predicted to cost $500m and comprises a $420m results-based program and a $80m investment project financing component. The full financing is expected to come from IDA.
It is intended to establish regular social support to poor and vulnerable households, while gradually transferring the responsibility for finance to federal and provincial budgets.
The initiative would help create “a sustainable social assistance to poor and vulnerable households, increasingly financed from federal and state budgets and delivered through strengthened state and local government systems,” the World Bank document claimed.
The initiative would fund targeted unconditional and conditional cash transfers, modernise the social registry, integrate the National Identification Number into the social protection information system, and strengthen implementation at the federal, state, and local government levels.
Nigeria spent just 0.14 per cent of GDP on social safety-net programs in 2021, compared with a global average of 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent for lower-middle-income nations, the lender added. Interactive Maps Download
The bank also painted a dismal picture of household welfare, forecasting that the percentage of Nigerians living in poverty has climbed from 40 per cent in 2019 to 56 per cent in 2023 and might reach 62.5 per cent in 2026.
It ascribed the decline to numerous factors, including the pandemic, inflation, natural catastrophes and conflicts, while it noted that fuel subsidy elimination and exchange-rate adjustments increased the cost of living in the short run.
The third is a $500m facility for the Nigeria Early Childhood Development program with tentative approval date of March 15, 2027, a day before the anticipated HOPE-SP approval. Its technical design review is also planned for October 30, 2026.
The borrower is the Federal Ministry of Finance while the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning is supposed to conduct the program.
The project is expected to encompass all 36 states and the FCT and will strive to increase access to a comprehensive package of health, nutrition, early learning, childcare, water and sanitation and other services for children aged zero to five.
This would be supported by a $500m IDA credit, consisting of a $400m programme-for-results and a $100m investment project financing component.
“40 percent of children under five are stunted, fewer than half are developmentally on track, 36 percent of children aged 36 to 59 months attend organised early learning,” the World Bank said. Much of the load is borne by poor rural households.
Debt skyrockets
This planned borrowing is coming on the back of recent numbers from the Debt Management Office (DMO), showing that Nigeria’s total public debt hit N166.79tn at the end of June 2026, up from N152.40tn in June 2025, an increase of N14.39tn in a year. Download Interactive Maps
This was an increase of 9.44 per cent compared to the previous year. But the expansion in terms of cash was much larger. Over the same period, public debt rose by $21.27bn, or 21.35 per cent, to $120.93bn from $99.66bn.
Among other causes, the discrepancy is due to the greater naira utilised to value the June 2026 external debt. The DMO used an official exchange rate of N1,379.1842/$ in June 2026 compared to N1,529.2105/$ in the same period last year. This led to significantly faster growth in the dollar-denominated debt than the naira-denominated debt.
The debt stock rose by N7.44tn or 4.67 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N166.79tn in June from N159.35tn in March 2026.
That was $5.98bn, or 5.20 per cent, more than the $114.95bn at the end of March. The June numbers suggest that domestic liabilities were the bigger part of the debt portfolio.
Domestic debt was N91.59tn, or 54.91 per cent of total governmental debt, while external debt was N75.20tn, or 45.09 per cent. The domestic debt increased by N11.04tn or 13.70 per cent from N80.55tn as of June 2025. In dollar terms it rose 26.07 per cent to $66.41bn from $52.67bn.
Domestic debt grew by N4.19tn, representing an increase of 4.79 per cent, to N87.40tn between March and June 2026.
External debt rose by $7.54bn or 16.05 percent to $54.52bn in June 2026 from $46.98bn in June 2025. But its naira worth increases by just N3.35tn or 4.66 percent from N71.85tn to N75.20tn on exchange-rate effect.
External debt rose by $2.62bn or 5.05 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis from $51.90bn in March to $54.52bn in June. Its Naira equivalent rose by N3.25tn or 4.51 per cent.
The federal government held responsibility for the vast bulk of the portfolio. It domestic debt was N87tn as at June while states and FCT had N4.59tn domestic debt. External liabilities of the federal government stood at N65.77tn, against N9.42tn owed externally by states and the FCT.
T-bills
A closer look at the domestic liabilities of the federal government reveals that the increase was more and more driven by Treasury bills and conventional naira bonds.
The FGN domestic debt climbed from N76.59tn in June 2025 to N87tn in June 2026, up by N10.41tn or 13.60 percent. It also rose by N4.12tn or 4.97 per cent in the second quarter alone.
FGN bonds were the leading instrument at N64.84tn, making up 74.53 per cent of the Federal Government domestic debt. The total includes N41.47tn conventional naira bonds, N22.11tn securitised Ways and Means advances and N1.27tn domestic dollar bonds.
But Treasury bills experienced the most absolute growth. The outstanding Nigerian Treasury Bills rose from N12.76tn in June 2025 to N19.48tn in June 2026, representing a gain of N6.72tn or 52.64 per cent within a year. Their share of federal government domestic debt increased accordingly from 16.67 per cent to 22.39 per cent.
The rise was also concentrated in the 2nd quarter. Treasury bills increased by N2.92tn, or 17.60 per cent, from N16.57tn in March to N19.48tn in June. Conventional FGN naira bonds rose by N4.94tn or 13.54 per cent year-on-year to N41.47tn and N2tn or 5.08 per cent between March and June.
Conversely, the securitised Ways and Means balance decreased from N22.72tn in March to N22.11tn in June, a decrease of N613.34bn or 2.70 per cent. Promissory notes also dropped significantly from N1.73tn in June 2025 to N1.22tn in June, 2026, a decline of 29.81 per cent.
FGN Savings Bonds, in comparison, increased 33.78 per cent from N91.53bn to N122.45bn but still accounted for just 0.14 per cent of domestic Federal Government debt.
$20.73 billion in loans
The DMO numbers also highlight the importance of the proposed $1.5bn facilities for Nigeria’s creditor profile. As of the end of June 2026, Nigeria’s total debt owed to the World Bank Group was $20.73bn. Of this amount, $19.12bn was owed to IDA and $1.61bn to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Interactive Maps Download
Total exposure increased by $1.34bn or 6.93 per cent from $19.39bn in June 2025 with IDA debt at $18.04bn and IBRD debt $1.35bn.
In the second quarter of 2026, the growth accelerated. The World Bank’s exposure rose by $907.09m or 4.58 per cent to $20.73bn in June from $19.82bn in March. The IDA alone jumped by $733.08m during the quarter, with IBRD at $174.01m.
The World Bank Group, which stood at $20.73bn, represented around 38 per cent of Nigeria’s total $54.52bn external debt stock as at end of June. IDA was by far Nigeria’s biggest known external creditor and its $19.12bn exposure alone was comparable to nearly 35 per cent of the country’s external debt.
Nigeria’s total multilateral debt was $24.76bn, representing 45.42 per cent of external debt. That means World Bank obligations accounted for over 84 percent of the country’s multilateral debt.
And the rest comprised $2.17bn to the African Development Bank, $1.01bn to the African Development Fund, $406.41m to the Islamic Development Bank and $314.98m to the International Fund for Agricultural Development, among others.
Commercial debt at $23.16 billion, was almost on a par with multilateral borrowing and accounted for 42.47 per cent of foreign liabilities. Eurobonds alone made up $18.55bn.
Other commercial debts include $1.87bn to First Abu Dhabi Bank, $835.78m to Afreximbank and a $1.5bn total return swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Bilateral debt was far less at $6.61bn, or 12.12 per cent of the foreign portfolio. China continued to be the largest bilateral creditor, with $4.91 billion due to the Export-Import Bank of China and $573.53 million to the China Development Bank. France $906.23m.
The mix of creditors has changed during the past year. Multilateral institutions accounted for 49.36 per cent of Nigeria’s external debt in June 2025, compared to 45.42 per cent in June 2026, despite an increase in their nominal exposure. Interactive Maps Download
This reflects higher growth in other parts of the external portfolio, in particular commercial borrowing. Eurobond liabilities rose from US$17.32bn in June 2025 to US$18.55bn in June 2026 while Nigeria also built up sizable syndicated and other commercial liabilities throughout the time.
The former Vise President, Atiku Abubakar, has called for complete reconciliation of Nigeria’s public debt, including fresh borrowings, Treasury Bills and disputed charges in the latest foreign debt-service records, it was reported earlier, as the country’s debt stock rose to N166.79tn.
Atiku also called on the President Bola Tinubu administration to tender apology over the suffering Nigerians had faced since the withdrawal of the petrol subsidy and other economic reforms enacted in 2023.
The demands were made in a statement Saturday by Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communications of the African Democratic Congress Presidential Campaign Council.
“The government that says more money is coming in must explain why it continues to borrow and why the people who are paying for its policies cannot see the promised gains,” Atiku stated.
He ordered the government to “identify the old debt that was newly recorded, the foreign debt whose naira value rose with the exchange rate and every new loan contracted since he assumed office.
Atiku questioned how much the country was paying in service of its debt, saying the mounting liabilities were eating into the funds allocated for public services and growth.
Lagos-based economist Adewale Abimbola, reacting to the increased World Bank pledges to Nigeria said loans from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank are mostly concessionary, with interest rates often below market levels and longer repayment tenors. Download Interactive Maps
“It is not a matter of whether Nigeria should borrow or not, the issue is whether the loans are structured and deployed effectively,” he said. “It’s not a bad idea if it’s concessionary and linked to viable projects with medium-term revenue prospects,” said Abimbola. “Borrowing is not bad, what is bad is using it.
He highlighted that the economic impact of such loans depends on how well they are directed into projects that may create long-term prosperity, boost income and improve public services over time.
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