Fitch Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from Stable to Positive due to increased foreign-exchange reserves, more exchange-rate flexibility, reducing inflation and expectations of continued economic reforms.
Fitch Ratings maintained Nigeria’s long term issuer default rating at B on October 9, 2026. The outlook was stable but indicated that an upgrade might follow if current trends are sustained.
The development of Nigeria’s gross external reserves, which was at 54.9 billion dollars on September 25, 2026, from 32 billion dollars in mid-April 2024 is mainly responsible for the improved forecast.
The build-up was due to larger portfolio investment inflows, increased export receipts and remittances, and greater formalisation of foreign exchange operations, Fitch said.
It also forecast Nigeria’s real GDP growth to be 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2025, with growth likely to be over 4 percent in 2027 and 2028, mostly driven by non-oil activity.
Fitch projected inflation would average 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half the level in 2024, but cautioned that was remains over the median of 5.6 percent for nations rated B.
Headline inflation eased modestly to 15.39 percent in August 2026 from 15.43 percent in July, according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Crude oil output, excluding condensates, averaged 1.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, the agency said, in line with the country’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May.
Domestic refining capacity is helping to minimise imports of refined petroleum products and the related demand for foreign currencies.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy Taiwo Oyedele said the favourable prognosis means there could be an upgrade provided the present economic trends and reform momentum are sustained.
“If the current trends persist, an upgrade is feasible,” Oyedele added.
He said Nigeria has had positive rating actions from all three main international rating agencies so far in 2026 with S&P Global Ratings upgrading Nigeria to B from B- in May and Moody’s adjusting its outlook to Positive in August.
The minister said the government had not been aware of the concerns raised by Fitch, in particular rising inflation, insufficient revenue mobilisation and the high level of government revenue that was being used to pay interest.
Fitch forecasts general-government interest payments to average 27% of revenue between 2026 and 2028, compared with a median of 14% for sovereigns rated B.
However, the changes were not just about boosting the credit ratings, they were also about reducing the cost of capital, attracting private sector investment and creating jobs, said Oyedele, adding that the administration’s medium-term vision was to put Nigeria firmly on the road to investment grade.
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