Edo guber election failed integrity test – Yiaga Africa
Civil Society group, Yiaga Africa has condemned the results of the Edo State governorship poll conducted on Saturday, saying that it failed the integrity test.
A statement released today and signed by its Chair of the 2024 Edo Election Mission, Dr. Aisha Abdullahi, and its Executive Director, Samson Itodo argued that the 2024 Edo governorship election failed the electoral integrity test due to the lack of post election statement on the transparency in the results collation process, which according to it, led to the manipulation of results.
It said, “While key processes such as accreditation, voting, counting, and recording of results at the polling unit substantially complied with procedures, the results collation process was compromised by the actions of some biased INEC officials in connivance with other actors.
“This manipulation severely undermines the overall integrity of the election.
The group said it concluded after it deployed the Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology to observe the Edo State governorship election.
The method it said involved 300 stationary and 25 roving observers covering a representative sample of polling units across all 18 LGAs.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the candidate of the Alliance Peoples Congress (APC), Monday Okpebholo winner after defeating his main challengers, Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party and Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party.
The APC candidate polled 291,667 votes, defeating Ighodalo, who garnered 247,274 votes. Akpata of the LP finished a distant third with 22,763 votes.
Statement On INEC’s Official Results
The group said it recorded incidents of results manipulation and disruptions during ward and local government collation in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor and Oredo LGAs, including intimidation of INEC officials, observers and party agents and the collation of results.
It added, “Yiaga Africa’s estimates are based on official results announced at the polling unit, from a representative random sample of polling units. As highlighted in our pre-election report, Yiaga Africa will amongst other factors consider the quality of election day processes in assessing whether the 2024 Edo governorship satisfies the electoral integrity test. In this regard, Yiaga Africa considered the integrity of accreditation, voting, counting, and collation of results.
“INEC consistently applied its guidelines in managing the accreditation and voting process in a significant number of polling units. Despite some isolated incidents, Post Election Statement on the September 2024 Edo State Governorship Election of inadequate election materials, the BVAS machines functioned optimally, and all voters in the queue by 2:30pm were allowed to vote, despite the late opening of polls. The polling officials uploaded polling unit results on the IReV in a timely manner, making it possible for citizens to access polling unit level results.
“However, the incidents of results manipulation and disruptions during ward and local government collation in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor and Oredo LGAs, including intimidation of INEC officials, observers and party agents and the collation of results contrary to the provisions of the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines, severely undermine the credibility of the election results.”
Inconsistencies in Officially Announced Results
Based on reports received from the sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa can project the expected vote shares for each party within a narrow margin.
However, it said it is only able to verify the election outcome if it falls within its estimated margins.
“If the official results do not fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges, then the results may It said, have been manipulated.
“According to INEC, the All Progressive Congress (APC) received 51.1% of the votes, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 43.3% of the votes, and the Labor Party garnered 4.0% of the votes. Based on reports from 287 of 300 (96%) sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows inconsistencies in the official results announced by INEC. For instance, the official results announced by INEC for APC in Oredo and Egor, LGAs fall outside the PRVT estimate. In Esan West LGA, the official results for PDP fall outside the PRVT estimates. Also, in Oredo LGA, the official results as announced for LP fall outside the PRVT estimates. These inconsistencies with Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate that the results were altered at the level of collation.
“The disparities between the official results released by INEC and Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate manipulation of results during the collation process. Yiaga Africa strongly condemns the actions of some biased INEC officials who altered figures during collation including the actions of some security officials who interfered with the collation process. Yiaga Africa notes that the cases of disruption in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor, and Oredo LGAs in the course of collation created opportunities for election manipulation, raising significant concerns about the credibility and integrity of the results collation process.”
It said, “Yiaga Africa is able to estimate that turnout is between 20.9% and 24.1% (22.5% ± 1.6%), while INEC’s official result is 22.4%. Similarly, Yiaga Africa estimates for rejected ballots are between 2.2% and 3.2% (2.7% ± 0.5%).”
