Road to 2023: Atiku’s emergence unsettles APC

Barely a week to the presidential primary of the All Progressives Congress(APC), indications have emerged that the emergence of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as the candidate of the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), has unsettled the ruling party.

It was learnt that the development has created anxiety in the APC and largely changed its earlier projections to prosecute the 2023 general elections.

A highly placed member of the ruling party from the North told Daily Sun that power brokers in the ruling party have zeroed in on another Northern candidate to counterbalance the threat from Turaki Adamawa.

He said that barring a last minute change of heart, the APC hierarchy may have foreclosed the possibility of supporting a candidate from the South.

He said: In politics, it is not about sentiments. It is like a football game where the players play to win. All the players chase the ball, which to politicians is power, to win.

“The question is who in the APC South can match Atiku considering the voting demographics of North and South. So, the only option is for APC to elect another Northerner to battle Atiku, also from the North.

“Remember, Atiku is a veteran in politics. He has contested four times to be president. Turaki Adamawa is an old war horse with enough experience. So, you must consider a lot of factors before picking any candidate that would face him in such a crucial election. It is not a time for gambling. Let the Atiku and another APC candidate from the North battle for votes in that region.”

The development comes even as the ruling party have been enmeshed in confusion over the unending clamour to zone the presidential ticket to the Southern part of the country for the sake of equity, fairness and balancing, especially after the North has held power for almost eight years now, under President Muhammadu Buhari.

Although the APC national leadership, the presidency and even party chieftains have continued to maintain deafening silence on the direction the ticket pendulum will swing to, the emergence of Atiku, he said may have provided the much anticipated ground for the ruling party to zero in on a northern candidate to counterbalance Atiku.

One of the issues that have dominated the permutation over how the APC presidential candidate will emerge is that President Buhari would anoint one of the aspirants as a consensus candidate.

Since this year, if the rumour millers did not spine the pendulum of the anointed one to the side of the former Minister of Science and Technology, Ogbonnaya Onu, they would swing to the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, or the former Minister of Education (State), Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba.

Other aspirants speculated to have received President Buhari’s endorsement at one time or the other include Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, the President of the Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan, former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and now former president, Goodluck Jonathan.

Apparently, the silence of the leadership of the party and President Buhari on the issue of zoning and possible consensus option has contributed hugely in escalating the confusion and anxiety especially which zone will produce the party’s candidate. It has equally kept the aspirants in the dark one week to the June 6-8, Special convention to pick the candidate of the party.

Unfortunately, while the aspirants have remained perpetually anxious to know their fate, the party’s leadership continued to adopt hide and seek tactics, apparently perhaps to wait for the opposition party to pick its presidential candidate.

Many believe that the APC’s repeated rescheduling and adjusting of its timetable and activities for the special convention are part of its hide and seek strategy for the primaries.

Boxed to a corner by the warning from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that it will no longer bow to any pressure again to shift the deadline for the conduct of the primary, in addition to the opposition party setting the ball rolling by picking Atiku as its candidate, the calculation and permutation by the ruling party will not only change but will provide clearer picture to the APC leadership on the direction to take.

Already, Atiku’s emergence may have thrown the leaders of the party into a state of apprehension and disquiet. In the calculations of several party members, zoning the presidential ticket to the South could be tantamount to sending the ruling party into early political retirement.

Yet to others, giving the ticket to an aspirant of the northern extraction equally portends the same consequence if not worse judging by the calibre and political clout of the northern aspirants side by side with the PDP candidate, Atiku.

In the calculation of some critical observers, with the strategic backing from the northern oligarchy for the former vice president, there are indications that the opposition may be coasting to victory going by the perception that it would be easier for Atiku with better political structure and stronghold to mobilise his ethnic-conscious northern electorate than any possible candidate that may emerge in the APC.

Those that hold that view may be hinging their conviction on the perceived and much-touted bulk voting strength of the Northern electorate in deciding the overall winner of any presidential election.

The contention is that should the APC risk zoning its presidential ticket to any other part of the country other than the north, it may be counter-productive.

With the fortune of the ruling party gradually dwindling due to perceived security and economic challenges  in the country, in addition to the fact that President Buhari with cult followership will not be on the ballot paper, many argue that Atiku may make mincemeat of any candidate from the South.

Yet to others, APC may have lost the ticket putting in place measures that encouraged greater percentage of the aspirants from the South to pick the presidential nomination forms.

It was understandably so because the party in its quasi-zoning arrangement had settled for certain critical positions in the national leadership especially the national chairman hitherto in the South going to the North.

A chieftain of the party, who shared similar sentiments, argued that none of the APC presidential aspirants can match Atiku force for force during the main election regardless of whether the ruling party deploys state apparatus or not.

“Among those that purchased form in APC, only Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu can boast of rivaling Atiku’s political structure. However, with the current situation, it will be a remote possibility for any of them to get the ticket of the APC. If you take the ticket to the South the northern oligarchy will frustrate it with their massive voting pattern. I can see bold conspiracy against the South in the emergence of Atiku as PDP candidate,” the chieftain, who spoke to Daily Sun in confidence argued.

However, many insist that the general election is certainly not going to be a stroll in the park.

Former APC National Publicity Secretary (NPS), Yekini Nabena, who claimed that with Atiku, the ruling party is at a vantage position to retain power at the centre beyond 2023 boasted APC has the former vice president’s password.

Nabena who spoke to Daily Sun, argued that since Atiku never challenged APC successfully both during primary and main elections, he will still be defeated in the 2023 presidential election.

“Atiku has never been a threat to the APC. If you go back to history, you will know that he has always been a failure in almost all the presidential positions he contested in or against the APC. APC has the password on how to defeat Atiku and the 2023 presidential election will not be an exception.

“We have been in the trenches several times with Atiku but APC has always prevailed. Don’t forget that he contested the party’s presidential primary during the 2015 election; he lost and left the party. He confronted the APC again in the 2019 presidential election and still lost. Yes, we are not going to undermine him and the forces behind him this time around, but we are solidly battle-ready for him,” Nabena boasted.

Asked whether the APC’s presidential ticket pendulum should swing South or North to counter Atiku’s forces, the Bayelsa State-born politician said: “It is too early to bother ourselves with that. We will go to the primary and elect the right candidate but regardless of where our candidate comes from, APC is not afraid of Atiku. He is a featherweight where the APC is involved. I repeat, Atiku is not a threat to the APC.”

Apparently wary of Atiku’s firepower and penetrating political structure, a chieftain of the party wrote: “I urge the National Chairman of the party and the entire NWC to stamp their feet and zone APC presidential ticket to the North East. President Buhari has a right to choose his successor and I call on him to pick Senator Ahmad Lawan as his successor. In every democratic setting, presidents and Governors support and pick their successors.

“I call on President Buhari to pick a successor from the North East and that will be the equity the South East needs. With the North East, the cycle will be closest to completion of regions producing the president of Nigeria.

“By now, all APC aspirants should drop their ambition and support a North Easterner. Senator Ahmad Lawan is the destination. Congratulations to the North East as we look forward to a president of Nigeria from the North East,” the chieftain insisted.

Beyond the permutations, the dilemma of zoning is not the only challenge facing the APC over the emergence of Atiku, as the crack in the national leadership of the party may also count against the party peacefully picking an acceptable candidate.

In a petition the party’s National Vice Chairman (North West), Salihu Moh Lukman, sent to President Buhari, he accused the National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, of not only autocratically handling affairs in the party but has also become inaccessible even to his National Working Committee (NWC) members.

Highlighting the casual manners NWC has handled sensitive issues, Lukman frowned at the constant involvement and peddling of the name of President Buhari over certain issues.

Criticising the levity in handling an issue as sensitive as picking the candidate of the party, he almost passed a vote of no confidence on the leadership, stressing: “The case of appointing Screening, Primary and Convention Committees is a good example. Again, although with your prompting, a committee was set up under the leadership of Deputy National Chairman (North). Sen. Abubakar Kyari, with the task of managing all the processes, eventually the committee was unable to discharge its function.

“Partly because of that, for instance, although the National Convention to elect the party’s Presidential Candidate is scheduled for May 29 and 30, less than 48 hours, we are yet to have a Convention Committee in place. In fact, the presidential aspirants are yet to be screened.

“The official explanation is that you are awaiting final consultation with President Buhari. At the risk of sounding agitated, this is unfair to President Buhari because to the best of my understanding, it is an attempt to use the President’s name to give excuses for failure, if it happens, which should not be the case.

“As NWC and as our leader being the National Chairman, I want to appeal to you on the need for new initiatives in managing the party. At the rate we are going, we are walking back to the old spot of over centralised implementation of party decisions around the National Chairman.

“Increasingly, critical challenges of managing important tasks such as organising National Convention to produce Presidential Candidate of the party is being handled informally. This should not be so, and everything must be done to correct that,” he warned.

Apparently, confronted with this looming leadership crisis, the ruling party, though no stranger to managing crisis, may have serious issue at hand to contend one week ahead of the crucial presidential primary.

Beyond the impending leadership crisis, the fear is that there may be an implosion should the ruling party fail to manage the backlash that will follow the methodology it will use in picking the presidential candidate out of the over 25 aspirants that picked the N100 million nomination forms.

But the Director-General, Voice of Nigeria (VON), Osita Okechukwu, dismissed the possibility of Atiku’s emergence, claiming that the dream is still alive.

Speaking to Daily Sun, Okechukwu argued: “methinks Atiku Abubakar’s opportunistic victory will have little or no impact on APC’s election of a presidential candidate from among Ndigbo aspirants or by extension the Southern belt aspirants.

“Don’t think Mr President I know even going by consensus, will deny the South their turn. More so when Atiku has nothing new and tangible to bring to the table in the face of prevailing daunting economic scenario.

“He is used to sharing money and none to be shared. Most importantly, one, northern voters are sophisticated, having voted for Chiefs MKO Abiola and Olusegun Obasanjo, and they will vote a Southerner this time around so as to shame the PDP for breaching rotation convention in their constitution. (Daily Sun)