2023 Presidency: South walks a tightrope as North plots to field APC, PDP candidates

The race for the 2023 presidency is set for fresh intrigues and power play as there are plots by some northern oligarchs to take advantage of the multiplicity of aspirants from the South ahead of next month’s presidential primaries of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and field northern consensus candidates for the region. New Telegraph learnt that a section of the northern elite has already set up a committee to interface with the leadership of leading political parties, including the APC, PDP and others, ahead of their party primaries to ensure that no part of the country is shut out of the process on account of zoning.

It was learnt that the host of aspirants from the south, especially the anticipated big tussle in the South West between Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo and APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, is the crack the northern oligarchy is capitalising on to field consensus candidates in both the APC and PDP for the February 2023 polls.

It was also gathered that some northern leadership have already thrown their weights behind the presidential aspiration of former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who recently dumped the PDP for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). After Asiwaju Tinubu broke the ice in January and declared his intention to run for the presidency when he visited President Muhammadu Buhari at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja, the Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, followed suit, and in a similar fashion, scores of aspirants have also thrown their hats into the 2023 presidency ring. Other southern aspirants that have also declared for presidency in the APC are: former governor of Abia State, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu; exgovernor of Imo State, Senator Rochas Okorocha; Minister of Labour, Dr. Chris Ngige; Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, and Vice-President Osinbajo.

The Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi is set to declare after the Ramadan fast as he has begun consultations ahead of his declaration. Also, a former Governor of Ogun State, Ibikunle Amosun, is believed to be planning to declare for the race.

The ruling party has fixed May 30–June 1, for the conduct of its presidential primary election, where one of the aspirants will be elected to fly its flag for the 2023 presidential election. For the PDP, the southern aspirants are: Dr. Sam Ohuabunwa, Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike; Former Ekiti State governor, Ayodele Fayose; Publisher, Ovation International, Chief Dele Momodu; former Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim; former governor of Anambra State and 2019 Vice Presidential candidate of the PDP, Peter Obi, and Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Udom Emmanuel.

While Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State is the only northern aspirant in the APC ticket race, the PDP has former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; former president of the Senate, Dr Bukola Saraki; Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto; his Bauchi State counterpart, Bala Mohammed, as well investment banker and economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, from the north. A source privy to the undercurrents said the decision by the APC to adopt indirect primaries is one of the advantages on the side of the north as they may work to having a block vote if the southern aspirants failed to agree among themselves. He said: “The southern APC may be in for a shocker if they continue throwing shades at each other and not coalescing.

The number of delegates for the primaries is 7800 and the north has 60 per cent of that. “The northern oligarchy wants to cash in on the looming division among southern APC and field one aspirant that may likely get a block vote. You can see that they are silent and even cheering on some southern candidates, it’s a strategy to close in on the south. “If they failed to agree and concede grounds for each other, the much-touted power shift may not happen because some northern leaders who still believe that the south already short-changed the region in terms of tenure in office since 1999 till date, are already pulling strings for a balance through continuation.”

Stating that some PDP governors and leaders are already working and scheming to be running mates to some northern aspirants, the source stressed that some southern aspirants in the PDP will step down after the Ramadan period. Speaking on the development, Secretary-General of the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE), Dr Kunle Olajide, said despite the unfolding tricks of the northern oligarchy, southerners must present acceptable candidates in both leading parties. While stating that the elders will intervene at some point to salvage the situation, he said that Nigerians have accepted rotation of the presidency and it has come to stay.

He said: “As far as I’m concerned, anybody can try all kinds of tricks but the important thing is the determination of the southerners to present an acceptable candidate for the presidency. And then, the people in the north, regardless of tricks anybody may be misleading them with, have to realize that Nigerians will not vote for a northerner again as president after President Buhari’s eight years.

“For me, I think it is clear that Nigerians have accepted rotation of presidency although it is not in the constitution but it has become the norm and the practice, so I won’t be bothered by any of their antics. “Presently, it is difficult to convince APC and PDP to zone their ticket to the south because we don’t have one political party.

We have two major political parties and they are trying to outdo each other, so it is now left for them to source for formidable candidates that can sell across Nigeria. We must realize the fact that the voters are not only in the south that are going to vote for the presidential candidate, they are going to vote for him across the length and breadth of Nigeria. So, it has to be a quality candidate that will sell across the length and breadth of Nigeria.

“There are roles the elders in the south can play but you must realize that there are two major political parties and where you have two major political parties, and then it will be left to the parties. But there may be one or two cases where formidable candidates that are respected across Nigeria appear to contend for the ticket, and then the elders may intervene and counsel one of them to step down for the other. And that is the only role I see elders playing at this point.” On his part, Igbo political leader and chieftain of APC, Chief Chekwas Okorie, said though the two parties are not obliged to zone their tickets to the south, he, however, warned of dire consequences if the north decides to hold on to power after President Buhari.

He said: “I have always expressed an opinion and I have not had cause to change my mind that the two parties, APC and PDP are not inclined to zoning their presidential slot to the south. Already the PDP has made it clear that it will be open to everybody. And my projection is that APC would simply do the same.

“APC has come out openly to say that they will conduct the presidential primaries by indirect primary method and they have also said that they are expecting 7800 delegates across the country. It is already obvious from the political structure of Nigeria that 60 per cent of the delegates would come from the north and the north has been known over the years to approach the issue of the presidency more or less from the point of consensus. But the south has never developed that consensus approach.

“You now come to the south where you have three geopolitical zones and they now have 40 per cent of the delegates to share. The South-West would not concede its delegates to the South-East, nor would the South-East concede its delegates to the South-South. It, therefore, means that the north does not require sponsoring anybody in the south to deny the south the presidency. “It is the south that will deny themselves the slot and the north would say since democracy is all about numbers and the majority wins, and that what has happened is a democratic process.

“And monitors and observers from abroad will watch the event at Eagles Square and conclude that it was indeed democratic and the presidency remains in the north. “But having said that Nigeria will only survive on the bases of equity, justice and fairness, so if the lop-sidedness of the Nigerian political structure is manipulated against the south, there will be political consequences.

So, the two parties should bear in mind that the 2023 election would not be a straight battle between APC and PDP. “There are other contending forces that will find accommodation in other political parties to assert their political interest at the polls. “It is already too late for stakeholders and elders in the south to intervene, because, how do you tell somebody like Tinubu to concede to the South-East for instance or tell those contesting from the South-South, Wike or Amaechi to concede to Tinubu. So, if the south had intended to approach the presidency from a unified front that arrangement would have been long before now,” he said. (New Telegraph)