The Defence Headquarters publicly denied the rumor of a planned coup in Nigeria, but it doesn’t make it any less convincing. The president’s decision to skip Independence Day events in favor of a “low-key” celebration, which means he doesn’t have to be seen in public, makes it seem like the media claims might be true.
The Defence Headquarters said the media allegations were “false and misleading” in a statement that denied the report. They said that the arrest of 16 officers had nothing to do with a coup and was instead “a routine internal process aimed at ensuring discipline and professionalism is maintained within the ranks.”
They said they will make the report of their panel’s study public, but whatever it says would probably be a letdown.
The official report probably won’t say what really happened, even if the officers who were arrested were found guilty or fired for preparing a coup.
In our country, institutions work in secret, and a lack of openness makes things that should be easy to understand more difficult.
Because of this, it’s unlikely that we’ll ever know the complete truth about this coup, at least not from official sources. We’ll have to make do with the bits of news that get out of the hands of people who keep official information. If a coup was really planned, they had good motives to keep the facts from getting out. If you say that certain people were preparing a coup but failed, it will make others who are more careful in their attempts and might go further.
The current leadership would also be quite foolish to admit that some officers tried to stage a coup. It would imply acknowledging that things aren’t going well in the commander-in-chief’s house and that he doesn’t have control over the military as he should.
Because there have been so many coups in Africa (Madagascar being the most recent), the presidency can’t afford to look weak.
But the news made me think: what would happen if there was a coup in Nigeria today? Who will go out and fight the soldiers for democracy? Some Nigerians on Twitter can sit behind their screens and tweet the typical nice things about how military control is better than the worst democratic governance. But if our democratic leaders are ever overthrown by coupists, will they fight to protect democracy? I really don’t think so.
How many of us will put our lives on the line to keep the current unfair system that mostly helps corrupt politicians and their children?
It’s not that they’re afraid; it’s that Nigerian leaders haven’t done enough to convince the generation that fought for and won this democracy in 1999 that it will be worth fighting for again. Many people in the country have little to lose, which has made them cynical instead of believing in the national purpose. It will probably take another generation to come along and start pressing for democracy to come back.
It shouldn’t take a crystal ball to see that the poor would rejoice and clap more than they will be horrified when they see our morally corrupt leaders being carried through the streets in their agbada. There won’t be any pain; instead, there will be a lot of approvals and schadenfreude when our repressive leaders finally get a taste of the same disrespect that they give to the people. Our leaders won’t even fight for their mandate since they don’t have strong morals. As soon as things start to go wrong, they get on their private planes with their family and fly to the beautiful homes they have built for themselves in other countries.
Even the Yoruba partisans who spend a lot of time hitting us over the head with reasons why we should support “our brother Tinubu” so that our area can stay in power won’t put their lives on the line. If history is any guide, they will be the first people in Aso Rock to bow down to the new leaders. Members of the National Association of Nigerian Students will watch them closely.
Yes, the same NANS that used to be a serious group for young people to learn how to be good citizens. Now, though, it is so corrupt that it can’t even recognize an ideal, let alone fight for one. They won’t even need any pressure to give in. They are used to replacing one group of corrupt leaders with another.
Other Nigerian youths attending various tertiary institutions with rationed electricity and water will lack the motivation to confront gunfire to preserve a socio-political order wherein politicians deprive millions of Nigerians of their future to provide their own children with elite education abroad.
Why should you battle just so their kids may go back to Twitter and show off their dad’s stuff?
Even the old class of pro-democracy campaigners will respect themselves and be silent. Who will they even call on to join them in the streets and sing “aluta” songs in the middle of the day? Some of them who got their credentials by fighting against oppressive military regimes are now sitting comfortably with tyrannical civilian rulers, not realizing how ridiculous they have become. Some are now at the top of the power structure, and they have no problem performing the same things that they say they battled against psychopathic tyrants like Sani Abacha.
What kind of nice picture of a more democratic future can they paint to get people to fight for democracy again? We have lived under military authority, and now we are living under civilian rule. The change is small.
We have enjoyed democracy for 26 years without a break, but what have we gained? There are many failed promises and a broken national spirit in the lengthy years of civil government. The things that are still happening in Nigeria now make the years of Okotie-Eboh seem tame and needless.
Our leaders are ignorant, dishonest, average, and cruel people. I can see how desperate people were in the past when they ran out of their homes to greet military tanks when I look at Nigeria in 2025. They might not have been so stupid as to think that their lives would become better, but they at least saw the military as a way to terminate a ruling order that had become too strong to be stopped by democratic means.
Democracy should provide people the power to replace their leaders since they should be able to govern their own lives, but in practice, things are more complicated. What Nigerian democracy wants us to do is keep supporting motions that just make a predetermined end seem legitimate.
So, why would anyone want to keep things like this going when they could halt the never-ending order?
Nigerian officials are worried about the possibility of a coup (Bayo Onanuga once fought a newspaper over a cartoon), but that hasn’t made them want to make Nigeria a place where people care enough about the democratic system to fight for it.
Instead of threatening people with a scary future if democracy falls to the military, we should ask who has gained enough from present situation to want it to continue. Stop telling us what we have to lose if we lose democracy. Instead, show us a better life, and we’ll be driven to protect democracy on our own.
*Abimbola Adelakun is a writer for The PUNCH.
About the Author
