How overconfidence led to Oyetola’s defeat in Osun Poll

Osun State gubernatorial election held on Saturday, July 16, 2022 may have come and gone, but its effects will reverberate for years to come, especially in the minds of many, especially given the circumstances that ended the second-term ambition of Governor Isiaka Adegboyega Oyetola of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Oyetola lost 375,027 votes to the 403,371 votes garnered by Senator Ademola Adeleke, of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who was also his major challenger during his first term bid in 2018. 

Besides the expected change of baton in the administration of the state in October, analysts have also noted the fact that the APC, which is also the ruling party at the centre, will be going into the next general election just seven months away, without the two neighbouring states of Osun and Oyo. 

No fewer than 15 registered political parties fielded candidates in the exercise that was adjudged peaceful and free of violence, owing to the heavy deployment of security personnel from other states and the people’s resilience, among other factors. 

Other major candidates in the election include Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi of the Accord Party; Architect Goke Omigbodun, Social Democratic Party; Hon. Lasun Yusuf, a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, the Labour Party flagbearer. 

While declaring the winner of the election, the returning officer, Professor Oluwatoyin Ogundipe, Vice Chancellor of the University of Lagos, said Adeleke won in 17 local government councils of the state, while Oyetola won in the remaining 13. 

The 13 LGAs won by APC are: Ilesa East, Ayedaade, Boripe, Ifedayo, Ife Central, Boripe, Ola-Oluwa, Iwo, Isokan, Irewole, Atakumosa East and Ife East; while the PDP clinched Boluwaduro, Osogbo, Ila, Atakumosa West, Ifelodun, Ilesa West, Odo-Otin, Obokun, Orolu, Olorunda, Ife North, Irepodun, Oriade, Ede South, Ejigbo, Ede North and Egbedore LGAs. 

Many observers of the Osun governorship election acknowledge the great improvements in the exercise conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), especially the electronic devices deployed. Barrister Yomi Obaditan, for instance, told Daily Independent that the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), an electronic device designed to read Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and authenticate voters, aids voting and recording of election results from polling units simultaneously on the commission’s portal, in line with the 2022 amendment to the Electoral Act. This device, he said, is helping to check the obscene manipulations of the popular will as seen in previous polls, and should be sustained in the interest of Nigeria’s democracy. Many have also noted the fact that INEC deployed electoral materials and personnel promptly. 

Shocked Incumbent, Overjoyed Victor 

Perhaps, still shell-shocked at the outcome of the election, Governor Oyetola is yet to concede defeat, as he and his team are still studying the results and consulting with critical stakeholders. The APC leadership is expected to respond to the exercise in due course, even as the party’s national chairman is quoted as feigning ignorance of the loss. 

In his acceptance speech, the winner dedicated his victory to his late brother, Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke, supporters and the entire people of the state, who he lauded for their courage and determination while pledging a total commitment to the best interest of the state and her people, and promising not to let them down. 

This is not the first time Adeleke would be gunning for the plum job, and both have been against Oyetola. His first attempt was in the 2018 governorship election, when he actually had the advantage of a marginal 353 votes’ lead, polling 254,698 votes to Oyetola’s 254,345. 

Daily Independent recalls that the exercise was, however, declared inconclusive owing to constitutional requirements for a rerun, where the number of votes cancelled is more than the difference between the two leading candidates of the election. There was, therefore, a rerun election in seven wards, in the build-up to which Senator Iyiola Omisore, who was then the governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), offered to partner with the APC by asking SDP supporters to vote Oyetola in his stronghold. This deal clincher gave Oyetola victory at the exercise. 

Badly Managed Success 

The followership of the APC government in the state actually started to wane in the build-up to that election, and the crack became noticeable when Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, Secretary to the State Government (SSG) resigned from the party to join Action Democratic Party (ADP), along with over half of the APC State Executive members, and hundreds of their members. 

Adeoti was said to have been irked by the way he was allegedly maltreatment in the process of selecting the party’s candidate for that election, which did not favour him. At the 2018 guber election in Osun, Adeoti polled about 49,745 votes, which would ordinarily have gone to the ruling APC, thereby making a rerun unnecessary, if the party had not fragmented. 

Following the failure of the ruling party to reconcile Oyetola and Adeoti, her chances of winning last Saturday’s election, according to observers of developments within the Osun political space, had been dwindling. The situation was made worse by the lingering rift between Oyetola and his predecessor and current Minister for the Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola. The rift allowed to fester over the years and even degenerated to level of enmity between the two political gladiators, and their supporters. 

 A confirmation of the irreconcilable difference that had lingered between the governor and his immediate predecessor was Aregbesola’s absence when the APC’s hierarchy and top federal government functionaries, and the Presidential flagbearer, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, stormed Osogbo, the Osun State capital for the party’s mega rally on Tuesday, July 12. Reacting, however to the outcome of last Saturday’s poll and in what some believe sounded like a fait accompli, Aregbesola reportedly tweeted: “Only God chooses those who rule over men,” quoting the Bible. The two-term governor reportedly travelled outside the country and was away during the exercise. 

Observers say APC’s loss last Saturday is proof that no one should be taken for granted during elections, while also blaming the party’s National Leader, who is seen as the godfather to all the gladiators for allowing the infighting to degenerate, thereby resulting in the loss. 

As an example of bad crisis management by the APC, a party insider in the state told Daily Independent, how after the 2018 governorship election, ex-Governor Aregbesola worked hard to ensure Adeoti returned to the fold and he succeeded. But soon after, the former SSG was said to have been schemed out of things in the party by the current leadership headed by Prince Adegboyega Famodun, the factional chairman. This further polarised the party, with Aregbesola supporting Adeoti against Oyetola. 

There are those who argue that with Aregbesola, Adeoti and their supporters fenced off the arrangements, the burden of prosecuting the electoral battle fell on his trusted aides, many of who occupied sensitive positions way beyond their capacities or experience, both at his Ilerioluwa Campaign Council and government. The governor’s men were also said to have been miserly, or failed outright to oil the party’s existing political structure, resulting in open complaints among the party various stakeholders down to the grassroots. 

It was also widely expected that Famodun, who had occupied various state executive committee position in the party over the years, including the Secretary and later Chairman, and had garnered some experience would drive the process. Perhaps, another mild reason party members feel alienated from the core of the party, and a reason for the discontent within the fold was the fact that both Famodun and Governor Oyetola hail from the same electoral zone. 

For too long, under Governor Oyetola, like in many APC controlled states, there are opposing group that worked against the party from within. One of such was “The Osun Progressives” (TOP), blamed for the huge votes raked in by Senator Adeleke even in many supposed APC stronghold. For instance, Osogbo, the state capital and originally a stronghold of the APC voted massively for PDP. The situation was also blamed for the loss of political base by Senate spokesperson, Senator Bashir Ajibola, to the opposition. 

The PDP was said to have taken advantage of the obvious lack of cohesion in the ruling party, as many simply voted for the next alternative, irrespective of party affilation. 

Denying Opposition Use of Public Facilities 

Daily Independent also note that the decision of the state government to deny opposition parties, especially the PDP, the use of public facilities like the Osogbo Sport Stadium, or the Nelson Mandela Freedom Park, for their mega rally was viewed by residents of the state as political intolerance and being vindictive by the Oyetola administration. 

Also the last minute attempts at warming the government’s programmes and policies into the mind of the people, especially labour leaders and trade unions such as the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) through the office of Civic Engagement, may not have yielded the desired fruits. Public servants distanced themselves from the labour leaders, and embarked on protest votes against the government at many polling units, including that of the Government House. 

Party Fatigue 

Further investigations by Daily Independent revealed that residents of the state were already complaining openly of being tired of the APC-led government, made worse by its lackluster performance at the centre, and the in-house fighting among the leadership in the state which had become a subject of beer parlour gossip. Residents therefore concluded that there was a need to change the party after 12 years. 

During the political campaigns, and not minding Adeleke’s certificate saga, some residents of the state, recalled that the governor-elect offered to improve on himself educationally and obtained a degree in criminology after his 2018 electoral defeat. 

Politics Of Segregation 

Reacting to the results of the election, the factional APC chairman loyal to Ogbeni Aregbesola, Alhaji Rasaq Salinsile admitted the obvious disunity in the party allegedly caused by “Oyetola’s politics of segregation,” which cost the party victory at the poll. 

He said he foresaw Saturday’s electoral defeat and made frantic efforts to draw the attention of party’s elders to it without success. 

He, however, admitted that Asiwaju Tinubu once sent an emissary “to attend to our grievances, but (unfortunately) the person never showed up to collect the complaint list from us.” 

It is an obvious fact, he lamented “that Governor Isiaka Oyetola came to destroy our party. We all worked as a united family to install him as governor in spite of all odds. But the moment he got there, he started politics of segregation and divide and rule tactics which he thought he could use to whip everybody back in line; particularly, he was against anything Aregbesola. 

“How on earth can you be a Chief of Staff to a sitting governor for good eight years and pretended to be what you were not. I have never met that kind of person in my life and I am not a young man,” he stressed. 

For the APC’s factional Publicity Secretary in the state, Abiodun Agboola, “the election has come and gone and winner has emerged. I believe the people have spoken and from the result, our party lost. No organisation can go into an election with division without suffering a humiliating defeat. The progressives suffered in Osun on Saturday.” 

He also blamed the party for failing to check the internal wrangling caused by the governor’s politics of exclusion, long before it snowballed into a festering crisis that was unresolved before the election. 

Continuing, he stressed: “When you exclude some people from participating, that is the kind of result you will get. I hope the party will learn from this and set things straight because we are still going for the presidential election in 2023 and that is some few months away.” 

Oyetola Still Studying Result 

Although President Muhammadu Buhari was among the first to congratulate the governor-elect for the feat, his party is yet to acknowledge its loss, while the governor noted in a statement by Ismail Omipidan, his Chief Press Secretary on Sunday that the APC would respond appropriately after studying the results and consulting with critical stakeholders. 

Meanwhile, the governor urged his supporters to remain calm, and the people of the state to go about their businesses peacefully, calling on security operatives to prevent the breakdown of law and order. 

However, 72 hours after the result was declared, neither Governor Oyetola, nor his party has conceded defeat 

Admonishing the governor-elect to brace up for the real work of governance already cut for him, Agboola warned that the job description of a state governor does not obviously include disc jockeying (DJ), just as failure to perform may force Adeleke to dance awkwardly. He also expressed optimism that his party’s leadership will help resolve the ongoing crisis and enable her go into the 2023 general election united. 

Agboola was re-echoing the admonition of Adedayo Israel, APC’s National Youth Leader, who during a visit to the Iwo home of Adeoti to forget the past and help mobilise for the party’s victory said: “We cannot go into this election divided sir.” 

Although, Israel had assured: “We will not let others profit from our division,” the outcome of last Saturday’s governorship poll suggests that the fence-mending efforts may have come a little too late, but what happens in the coming months will prove how well the APC has patched its cracks across the country, ahead of the 2023 general elections.  (Daily Independent)