2023: Most likely new helmsmen in the states

With the conclusion of the governorship primaries in relevant states last week, this report looks at the post-primaries rancour and profile of likely successors of the incumbents in the states

If history has a way of repeating itself, the outgoing governors who have completed their two-terms of eight years have anointed their successors and will battle the opposition in the respective states with resources at their disposal to ensure they achieve their goals.

Following the completion of the primaries, the 2023 governorship elections will hold in 28 states of the federation, but feelers from the states indicate that the contest will be very stiff especially in some volatile states especially Rivers, Abia, Benue, Enugu and Kano states.

The primaries have created some rancor as the likes of former Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, current Minority Leader of the PDP, Eyinnaya Abaribe and Deputy Governor of Delta State, lost out in their respective states.

But the governors’ choice has set the stage either for a groundswell of probes or for continuity and godfatherism in the respective states in the next four years after the 2023 elections.

Delta

With the emergence of the incumbent Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, Rt Hon Sheriff Oborevwori, as the 2023 governorship flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the coast has become clearer as to who the likely successor of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa will be. Oborevwori emerged against the dictates of the former governor of the state, Chief James Ibori, who is highly respected among the political bigwigs of the state. Ibori was not ready to step down his interest for Governor Okowa.

He tried every means to bring the governor to understand and surrender to his preferred former Commissioner for Finance, Olorogun David Edevbie, but to no avail.

The stage is set for battle royale between Oborevwori and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) ably led by the Deputy Senate President, Chief Ovie Omo-Agege, the governorship candidate of the party. Oborevwori may succeed Okowa, owing to popularity of PDP in the oil rich state since the advent of democracy in 1999.

It is obvious that with the outcome of the PDP governorship primary election in the state, ‘wounded lions’ like Ibori, the former Minister of State Education, Chief Kenneth Gbagi, who staged a boycott of the governorship primary, Edevbie, Chief Ejaife Odebala, Okowa’s Deputy, Barr Kingsley Otuaro, Sen James Manager, the immediate past Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Peter Mrakpor (SAN) and a host of others, that stormed out of the Late Stephen Keshi Stadium venue of the exercises, should not be allowed to deploy their remaining political strength to jeopardize thr chance of Oborevwori.

Ikpeazu’s successor

In Abia State, Professor Uche Ikonne on Wednesday, May 25, 2022 emerged as Abia governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in an election the majority of the notable aspirants withdrew.

Ikonne will, however, likely face what could be formidable candidates from both the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Ordinarily, when the PDP in Abia was still a family affair, one would have concluded that come May 2023, Ikonne will emerge as the Governor of Abia State, but things are no longer the same with the PDP.

When a political party witnessed an involuntary withdrawal from seven aspirants including formidable ones like the Senate Minority Leader, Enyinnaya Abaribe; the Deputy Governor, Sir  Ude Oko Chukwu; and Senator Emma Nwaka then things cannot be the same.

The above-mentioned names and others complained about non-compliance with due process in electing the three man ad-hoc delegate list. No doubt, Ikonne, the immediate past Vice-Chancellor of the Abia State University, has won the PDP, primaries in Abia after he secured 468 to defeat his closest rival, Mayor Lucky Igbokwe who was among those who refused to withdraw and polled 45 votes.

 If nothing is done, PDP will go into the 2023 election very weak in their comfort zones like Obingwa (home of Abaribe and Ikpeazu), Umuahia North (home senator of T. A Orji), Ukwa East home of Senator Adolphus Wabara, Ohafia (home of Ude Oko Chukwu, the Deputy Governor) and more. Ikonne will need something bigger than a campaign to penetrate Abia North Senatorial Zone who have seen what the thought was their turn taken away from them.

Should aspirants like Professor Gregory Ibe emerge as candidates of APGA with anger in Abia North, Ikonne will find it difficult to get a victory there because there will likely be a protest vote based on the political atmosphere there. The APC is also not too healthy because the recent withdrawal of a renowned banker and former governorship candidate in 2015 and 2019 (under APGA) proved that APC is having similar problems as the PDP.

However, with the former Minister of State for Mines and Steel Development still in the race in APC and of course High Chief Ikechi Emenike, who is regarded as the “real deal” in power-sharing APC and a “power broker” in the party, it will be a battle of the gladiators.

Should the rumour of Abaribe and some angry PDP members joining forces with APGA to get tickets in various legislative positions both at state and federal, the PDP will have it hot than ever. If the APC can as well settle its differences and support a formidable candidate that emerges victorious, then the PDP will see a different ball game.

From what is on the ground, there is absolutely only one-way Ikpeazu can sell his choice of candidate in Abia, especially Aba and that is by completing all his major road projects. Failure to do that will be a disaster.

Siminialayi as Wike’s likely successor

When the gubernatorial primary conducted by the Rivers State chapter, PDP got underway in the evening of Wednesday, it was obvious that the state’s immediate past Accountant-General, Fubara Siminialayi would emerge victorious. At least two weeks to the primary his endorsement by Governor Nyesom Wike was no longer news.

Before then, almost nothing was known about him apart from serving the state as accountant general. So, politically, the 43 year-old civil ser-

vant is not tested and had never shown any public interest in politics. But getting the tacit endorsement and support of Wike was all that matters. At the primary, Siminialayi who hails from the ancient Opobo Kindgom in Opobo Local Government Area scored a total of 721 votes to defeat his two closest rivals, Isaac Kamalu, the immediate past Commissioner for Finance and George Kelly, a former Wike aide who came a distant second and third with 86 votes 37 votes respectively.

Sixteen aspirants had contested for the party’s ticket after series of stakeholders meetings and consultations led by the state Governor, Nyesom Wike failed to produce the latter’s successor. Siminialayi was recently declared wanted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC alongside three other state officials over alleged N117 billion fraud.

Kaduna and El-Rufai’s likely successor

Barring any last minute eventuality, Kaduna State Governor Mallam Nasir El-Rufai is likely to be succeeded by the current Senator representing Kaduna Central, Mallam Uba Sani.

Mallam Uba Sani and El-Rufai are long term associates and members of the same political family since the return of democracy in 1999. Before the present political equation in the state that pushed Sani ahead of the other contestants, the Governor was said to have favored his former Chief of Staff and current Commissioner of Economic planning, Muhammad Sani Datijo.

But the prevailing circumstances and what some power insiders said was a gentlemanly agreement with Senator Uba Sani to hand over to him after his tenure might have swayed the pendulum in his Favour. At the beginning of political activities in the state, at least over five governorship aspirants showed interest in taking over from Governor El-Rufai.

This was a far cry from the over ten aspirants predicted by the state governor himself last year. Close watchers of Kaduna politics said, this was because the inner circle of the Nasir El- Rufai political family has discussed and zeroed in on the few to guide against acrimony after the elections.

 Among those that showed interest before Uba Sani was chosen by the kitchen cabinet were the Deputy Governor Dr. Hadiza Balarabe, Senator Uba Sani, Muhammad Sani Datijo and others considered as outsiders like Alhaji Sani Shaaban, Alhaji Bashir Jamoh and others.

With the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presenting the same candidate like in the 2019 governorship candidate, a former House of Representatives member Hon. Isa Ashiru, it would take a lot of political undercurrent and something akin to a political surprise to wrestle power from the ruling APC and Governor El-Rufai’s men in Kaduna state come 2023. El-Rufai haven defeated Ashiru in 2019 might believe that he has the magic wand, to still guide his man, Senator Uba Sani to victory in the next elections. In Kebbi State both the All Progressive Congress (APC) and People Democratic Party (PDP) have conducted their primaries in peaceful manner.

Gwandu may succeed Bagudu

In the APC, a former NUT president Dr. Nasiru Idris Kaura Gwandu defeated the incumbent Senate Leader, Dr. Abubakar Yahyah Arugungu and former Deputy Custom Comptroller-General, Abubakar Mallami.

In the PDP General Bande, (rtd) defeated the former PDP National Treasure Buhari Bala with narrow margin, but that some PDP members were not happy with the votes, most especially the former Minister of special Duties, Barr Kabir Tanimu (SAN), stating that the result will give the APC opportunity to win the election.

Gwandu’s emergence has given APC more chances to win Kebbi State, as one of the party leaders, Alhaji Kabiru Sani Giant, said that the candidate has 100 per cent chances of winning the forthcoming general election because of his popularity.

Uba may succeed Ortom

It is now evidently clear that the incumbent Speaker of the Benue State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Titus Tyoapine Uba will likely succeed Governor Samuel Ortom ahead of next year’s general elections. Hon. Uba emerged the PDP governorship candidate during the May 25 primaries after he ran the race against five other aspirants including the incumbent Deputy Governor of the state, Engr. Benson Abounu.

The Speaker won in 21 out of 23 local government areas while the deputy governor won in Otukpo and Ogbadibo local government areas where he scored 40 and 23 votes respectively.

Uba, was initially not on the governor’s mind for the coveted seat, but deep-seated political calculations including micro-zoning and other inner arithmetics played out in his favour and is now poised to face the real battle with whoever might emerge from the opposition the APC in the state.

It is plausible to indicate that the Uba’s chances are indeed high because the power of incumbency is going to be strictly applied to ensure that he succeeds Governor Ortom no matter the dream of wooing the federal might for the APC to take over the state.

As at press time, it was not clear who would emerge as candidate of the APC due to seeming crisis over the adoption of the direct primaries mode of election.

But leader of the party in the state, Senator George Akume is bent on getting a Rev. Father (a new entrant) into the party as candidate a development which top notches like Senator Barnabas Gemade, Chief Michael Kaase Aondoakaa, Rt. Hon. Herman Iorwase Hembe who are also aspirants among others have sternly refused to agree, just as some of the aggrieved card carrying members are reportedly to be planning their way out of APC in the state.

Bright as their chances may be, observers believe that the major hurdle is selling themselves and getting the support of the electorate in the elections in 2023 (Sunday Telegraph)