2023 : Anxiety, tension ahead APC Special Convention to elect Presidential candidate

There is palpable tension and anxiety in the atmosphere as the ruling All Progressives Congress(APC) makes final preparations for its Special Convention scheduled for Monday June 6, in Abuja to pick the candidate of the party for the 2023 presidential election.

Already, the 23 aspirants who bought forms have been screened and reduced to a manageable number of 13, while the relevant committees have been constituted.

Baring any last minute change in plan, the issue of zoning and consensus arrangement would have been sorted and resolved during the planned meeting between the Progressive Governors and President Muhammadu Buhari scheduled today.

The aspirants have also crisscrossed the entire length and breadth of the country to solicit the vote of the delegates in addition to networking with the relevant stakeholders that would brighten their chances of clinching the party’s presidential ticket tomorrow.

Interestingly, the screening committee in the recommendation contained in their report submitted to the party’s leadership tried to separate the pretenders from the contenders through the criteria of contributions to the party and national development, security report from the anti-graft agencies and other sundry issues.

At the end, according to the committee, 13 aspirants got a clean bill of health after going through the burning furnace of the screening while urging the national leadership of the party to further trim down the list.

From the trending reports, those that emerged frontline contenders include, the President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan; former Minister of Education (State), Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo; APC national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Governors of Kogi, Yahaya Bello; Ebonyi, Dave Umahi; Ekiti, Kayode Fayemi; Jigawa, Mohammad Badaru Abubakar.

Others are former governors of Rivers State, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi; Abia, Ogbonnaya Onu; Akwa-Ibom, Godswill Akpabio; Ogun, Ibikunle Amosun; and Jack-Rich Tein, among others.

The recommendation of the screening panel read: “We would also want to advise that should any aspirant not be ready for consensus arrangement, then the party should proceed to conduct elective primaries in strict compliance with the provision of Electoral Act.”

The aspirants have in reality transverse the country, but many of them like other Nigerians are not convinced that their future and fortune would rest on the magnanimity of the elected delegates, as it is believed that President Buhari’s anointment will be the decider.

Faced with that stark realities, many believe that the appeal from President Buhari to the Progressive Governors to permit him to chose his successor did not only confirm the worst fears, but has also left almost all of them in the state of confusion and anxiety.

Curiously, the aspirants’ names have been peddled as the anointed by the president at one point or the other. Among the aspirants touted to have the backing of President Buhari are former Minister of Education (State), Nwajiuba; Vice President Osinbajo; Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; his former Science and Technology counterpart, Onu, among others.

For Osinbajo, he has always told every ear that cares to listen that beyond the speculated endorsement by Mr President, he would bank on his administrative experiences gathered in the last seven years as the vice president to edge out others.

However, despite the advantage the power of incumbency may have conferred on him, many still nurture the impression that his strained relationship with his godfather, Tinubu, will certainly count against him.

How he maneuvers and manipulates the hurdles and odds against him to his advantage, especially in convincing the Yoruba nation that he was not on a ‘satanic’ mission to sabotage the collective resolve to front and support his godfather to clinch the position.

In the build up to the activities to resolve who picks the ticket, the pendulum has equally at one time or the other swung towards Nwajiuba.

According to his apostles, his perceived closeness to President Buhari in a political journey dating many years placed him shoulder and head above other anointed aspirants.

Those that have interacted with Nwajiuba can testify that he is a man of capacity and competence, but his detractors feel that what would count against him was the inability to resolve the lingering ASUU strike before resigning from the ministry.

Minister of Transportation, Amaechi, to those close to the seat of power, can testify that he is among those with the ear of President Buhari. Perhaps because of his performing ministry, especially in the area of railway exploit, he has an unfettered access to Mr President to be the anointed one.

His contributions to President Buhari emerging the President in 2015 made him the aspirant to receive Buhari’s endorsement ahead of others.

However, the speculation that he may not have met up with the resignation deadline in accordance with the Electoral guidelines may certainly count against him.

Another aspirant with rising profile is the President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan.

He has so many things working for him, including the mundane issue of zoning the ticket to the Northeast believed to have been marginalised in the presidential power rotation equation.

Beyond that, apostles of tribal politics believe that he remains a sentimental northern force to counter the moving train of the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar during the presidential election.

However, in the calculations of many political watchers, he lacks the political antecedent, general acceptability and ardent backing of the northern oligarchy.

Apparently, former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, certainly deserves the ticket if his claims that he contributed more than every other person in making Buhari the president is anything to go by.

There is no doubt about his capability and competence, his administrative experiences is not also in short demand just as he has enough war chest to march any other candidate from the opposition party, force for force, and money for money.

But he is one aspirant touted to be endorsed by President whose ambition has been marred in controversy. Beyond the doubt over his health status, his recent outburst in Ogun State on sundry issues will certainly count against him.

Another aspirant whose profile looks good to fly the flag of the APC is Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State. Bello had indicated his interest for the job about two years ago, even when the agitation for power shift to the South was thick in the air and no northern contender dared to buy the idea.

Thus, he was in the forefront of the champion of the narrative that zoning was not in the ruling party’s constitution and was almost like a lone voice in that struggle. At that time, even key northern governors were vocal in their call for power to shift to the South based on what they termed a ‘gentleman agreement.’

When it dawned on northern stakeholders that a few weeks to the beginning of the real race, Yahaya Bello was the only aspirant standing in the North, the race to puncture that began with some of them rushing to pay for the presidential nomination forms thereby making them to copy the Kogi governor.

Yahaya Bello’s campaign has also taken the whole political and media space by surprise and his media outing adjudged the best in the current political season. An independent manifesto review of key aspirants across parties by Channels TV also rated his manifesto the best amongst others, tying him only with Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

Also to his advantage is the clamour by many youth groups for a youthful president, which the Kogi governor is savouring at the moment and hopes to utilize fully if his party gives him the ticket.

Indeed, the huge simultaneous rallies by youths across more than 24 states on a single day showed a kind of capacity that had not been seen before in recent history.

Similarly, he has massive women support following the many strategic positions he has given to women in his cabinet and campaign organisation. These two demographics are key to winning elections and decision makers in the APC may fall for these.

Not many people knew how much work he had done in Kogi until his media team began to put the projects in the faces of Nigerians, making many to argue the the presidential race should not be about the highest bidder, but who can effectively build on the successes of President Buhari and tackle the challenges.

Beyond the individual strengths and weaknesses of the aspirants, the build up to the primary has not been a smooth sail considering the twin issue of leadership crisis rocking the party and the perception of President Buhari on how the candidate of the party would eventually emerge.

In the past one week, instead of collectively planning the Special Convention, the leadership of the party, the National Working Committee (NWC) have been enmeshed in one controversy or the other, especially against the National Chairman, Abdulahi Adamu, who they accused of high handedness.

Apart from the unending attacks on the chairman, the factional NWC members equally spoke against the appeal from President Buhari to allow him anoint his successor.

The ruling party may be pretending to be a house that is in order, but in reality, it is gradually becoming a house of commotion.

Unless the attackers are prevailed upon, the ruling party is seriously facing the risk of fielding a presidential candidate, following the rejection of certain committees, they claimed, Abdullahi Adamu constituted singlehandedly.

Although the screening panel made a recommendation f reducing the aspirants to a manageable size of 13, if measures are not put in place to manage the fallout, it may escalate to litigations by those that might seek legal redress to their disqualifications.

The John Odigie-Oyegun-led Screening Committee may have denied that they did not disqualify any aspirant, but only made recommendation to the leadership of the party. But suggesting that only 13 aspirants should go into the poll, many believe, could rightly be interpreted as disqualification.

Speaking while submitting the report, Oyegun said: “First, we had 23 aspirants that we interacted with and my first comment is that indeed we are very lucky party. Those 23 that presented themselves were prominent Nigerians both within the country and outside the country that applied.

“But for what ever reasons could not proceed with their applications. The point I want to make is the quality of the people that want to  govern this country. The second point I want to make is that; we were surprised with the active participation of the youthful members of the party. Some of them really surprised us as to what they have accomplished in life, their understanding of the situation of the country and how they want to have the privilege of governing this country.

“So, what was important was that they so believed in the country and the party that they were able to pay the sums, which I considered as ransom, to participate in the process. Our report is basically simple. We don’t want to beat around the bush. There were two aspects to it; the basic constitutional qualifications for you to aspire to be a president of Nigeria.”

Appraising the special convention to produce the party’s candidate, a chieftain of the party told Sunday Sun that the meeting between President Buhari and the aspirants today (Saturday) would be the decider, stressing that the primary may be reduced to a mere carnival instead of the contest to pick the candidate.

“Yes, so many forces may be at play ahead of our presidential primary on Monday, but it will be milestone and far much better than the one conducted by the opposition recently. In any case, I don’t want to undermine the gravity of the build up crisis ahead of the primary, but it will end up a storm in a tea cup. What is happening now is expected of a new leadership, especially the division or crack among the NWC members.

“What I also know is that these issues will be sorted out before moving to the Special Convention ground. And I can assure you that it will start on Saturday (yesterday) when the aspirants will meet with Mr President. I saw a repeat of what happened during our last national convention which confirmed Abdullahi Adamu as the national chairman of the party hours to the convention.”(Sunday Sun )