Lawan, Osinbajo, Tinubu, Amaechi, Onu, Umahi look strong amid Jonathan joker

Barely 48 hours to the Special Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the race for the presidential ticket of the ruling party has been narrowed to six frontline aspirants.

However, former President Goodluck Jonathan could turn out the joker.

The top runners are Senate President, Ahmad Lawan; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; former ministers of Science and Technology and of Transportation, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu and Rotimi Amaechi, respectively and  Ebonyi State Governor,  Dave Umahi.

The emergence of the six top runners comes as the pressure on Jonathan to vie for the top office has continued.

A highly placed source told Daily Sun that beside the Jonathan trump card, the race is strictly among the six leading aspirants based on areas of strength in terms of delegates support for the primary.

The projection, he said, is based on an analysis of delegates’ preferences, realignments of APC governors, President Buhari’s behind-the-scene moves and emerging voting patterns in swing states.

With  President Buhari declining assent to the Electoral Act 2022 Amendment Bill, only 2,340 ad-hoc delegates would be participating at the APC convention to elect the party’s presidential candidate for next year’s election.

This is because the current Electoral Act 2022 (as amended) does not provide for statutory delegates during the convention.

The ad-hoc delegates would be drawn three apiece from the nation’s 774 local government areas and six area councils of the nation’s capital, Abuja.

Statutory or “super” delegates” include elected councillors, elected local government chairmen and their deputies, political party chairmen in all the 774 LGAs and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), state and federal lawmakers, governors and their deputies, president and vice president, political parties’ national working committee members, state party chairmen and secretaries.

How would the aspirants fare in the six geopolitical zone?

South West:

Multiple sources confirmed that in the South West, the battle is among the vice president, Tinubu and other two aspirants, who are not strong contenders: Ekiti State Governor  Kayode Fayemi and former Ogun State governor,  Senator Ibikunle Amosun.

According to the sources, following the breakdown of the delegates list, Vice President Osinbajo barring unforeseen circumstances will dominate Ondo and Oyo, while Tinubu is strong in Lagos and Osun. Fayemi is at home with Ekiti, while Amosun will share votes with Tinubu in Ogun. The other aspirants,  like Amaechi and Umahi do not stand any chance in South West.

North West:

In the North West states of Kano, Kaduna  Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Zamfara, Lawan, Tinubu, Onu and Amaechi are strong, with Osinbajo trailing.

Daily Sun learnt that Tinubu would enjoy a substantial support of delegates from Kano because of his relationship with Governor Umar Ganduje. Lawan is also a big factor in the state.

Amaechi enjoys good support in Katsina, where he holds a title of “Trust Son” and in Kaduna, where Governor Nasir El-Rufai, speculated to be penciled down as a running mate if the former Rivers governor wins, holds sway.

Lawan is equally strong in Katsina given his support for Buhari and in Kaduna. Sokoto and Kebbi tilt towards Lawan, with Tinubu, Osinbajo, Amaechi hoping to get some votes, likewise Jigawa and Zamfara.

South South:

Amaechi appears to be king in the South South. He is expected to take substantial votes in Rivers, Bayelsa and Cross River states. Former Akwa Ibom governor,  Godswill Akpabio, is however, the man to beat in his state, with expected share of Cross River votes. Tinubu, strongly supported by ex-APC Chairman,  Adams Oshiomhole, is likely to win Edo, while Lawan looks good in Delta, with the support of Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege. This equation will however change if Jonathan succumbs to pressure and joins the race.

North East:

The Senate president, Lawan, our sources confirmed, is at home in the North East states of Yobe, Borno, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe. He is expected to take Yobe fully and substantial votes in Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi and Gombe. Oni and Tinubu are popular in Borno, with Governor Babagana Zulum’s support.  Former governor of Zamfara, who is also in the race, Senator Sani Yerima, is on ground in his state.

North Central:

In North Central states of Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Niger, Nasarawa and Plateau, Governor Yahaya Bello, Lawan, Amaechi, Osinbajo, Tinubu , Oni and Umahi are in strong contention.

While Bello is expected to take Kogi fully and do well in Niger and Nasarawa, Tinubu is good in Kwara. Osinbajo, Amaechi , Onu and Umahi are projected  to do do fairly well in Plateau and Benue because of the Christain population.

South East:

Owing to sentiment for South East president, Onu and Umahi are popular in the zone. They are at home in Ebonyi and Enugu. Lawan is good in Imo, Anambra and Abia states owing to the strong support of Senate Chief Whip Orji Uzor Kalu and Imo state governor, Hope Uzodimma . Onu is popular in the South East and is rumoured as a likely dark horse that could spring surprise. In the zone, the battle is for Umahi, Onu and Lawan.

The Jonathan mix:

Although Jonathan has not confirmed that he is running,  there are indications that some powerbrokers in the North want to draft him in. A coalition of North groups had obtained forms for Jonathan,  which were filled and duly submitted.  The APC leadership has insisted that it will screen all those whose forms were submitted.

Daily Sun learnt that those around President Buhari want Jonathan as consensus canidate, to keep to expectation of power shift to South. Talks are ongoing to persuade  Jonathan, which we learrnt is delaying President Buhari’s meeting with all presidential aspirants.

Our source said that even though Jonathan has submitted his form, he is giving conditions to  emerge as the consensus candidate.

The Buhari factor:

President Buhari is a big factor in choosing APC candidate. Sources said he is torn between choice of Lawan, Onu, Amaechi or Emeka Nwajiuba.

It was gathered that although the President prefers a southern candidate, he is under intense pressure to back a northern aspirant in the event that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chooses a northern candidate. This , some claim is the reason Lawan is in the calculation. He is there as a counterpoise to PDP’’s expected northern candidate.  (Daily Sun)