2023: All eyes on PDP on power shift to South

By now, the Iyorchia Ayu-led National Working Committee (NWC) of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) must have come to the full realization of the enormity of the challenge before it vis-à-vis the agitation for power shift. 

It is one issue that has dominated discussion for too long. And there is no clear direction yet as to which part of the country its presidential candidate for the 2023 general elections would come from.     

Giving regard to the informal arrangement for power rotation among the six geo-political zones of the country as enshrined in its constitution at the inception of the present democratic dispensation in 1999, that the North has had more than its fair share of power equation is not in contention. Rather, what is generating ripples within the party is the opposition of some of its stalwarts to a change of status quo.

Unlike the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), PDP has been in a continuous struggle with the forces of change and those insisting on the status quo.

Now, with the increase in the tempo of political activities as the second tenure of the Buhari administration runs its full course, people are increasingly becoming agitated by the seeming lackluster attitude of the party hierarchy to the issue of power shift.   

Though unknown to the Nigerian Constitution, the PDP had enshrined the gentleman’s arrangement in its constitution to give each geo-political zone of the country a fair sense of belonging. The motivation for the agreement followed the prolonged political stalemate occasioned by the annulment of June 12, 1993 presidential election believed to have been won by the late Chief MKO Abiola by the military.

At the advent of the present democratic dispensation, therefore, the party had to concede the exalted seat to the Southwest to appease the Yoruba for the perceived injustice, leading to the emergence of General Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd) as an elected president in 1999.

The rotational agreement, however, suffered momentary setback following the demise of President Umar Yar’Adua and the subsequent ascension of Goodluck Jonathan to power. 

In 2015, the Northern opposition to Jonathan’s second term ambition nailed the coffin, but was resurrected by the APC through the emergence of Muhammadu Buhari.        

In keeping faith with the arrangement, power is expected to shift back to the South after the eight-year tenure of the Buhari administration. 

But with the array of frontline contenders for the race coming from the North, the insinuation is rife that the leadership might have tacitly given its nod to retention of presidency in the North.

Until now, most of the aspirants who had indicated their interests for the plum job were largely of Northern extraction. These included former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Aminu Tambuwal, Sule Lamido, Bala Muhammed, Bukola Saraki, among others. 

However, erstwhile Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, is a new entrant into the race from the South contending for the ticket of the PDP.        

Although the speculation about the plot to concede the slot to the North has been consistently debunked by the party hierarchy, stakeholders in the South believe that the decision by the party to set up a special committee to work out the zoning arrangement is diversionary, unnecessary and a waste of time. They more often refer to the intrigues that culminated in the report of the 2019 Election Review Committee led by Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State which had recommended merit as a major criterion for the choice of the presidential flag bearer of the party for the 2023 elections. 

A source within the party, who pleaded anonymity, while speaking with Sunday Sun, said: “The motive for setting up of a committee on zoning is suspect. Simple logic demands that the ticket moves to the South after the eight-year tenure of President Buhari.  

“But we have a subsisting report of Governor Bala Muhammed-led committee which recommends that the PDP must conduct a credible national presidential primary, arguing that there are capable individuals all over the country who can provide the right leadership for Nigeria. 

“That is contrary to the original intention of the founding fathers of the PDP who put zoning arrangement in the constitution. It is not about whether or not a particular section has the monopoly of competent persons; it is about fairness, justice, and equity. I think we need to tread softly to avoid creating a crisis that can ruin chances of our party in the 2023 elections.”

Nevertheless, expectation is high that the national chairman would expeditiously address some of these concerns, bearing in mind the enthusiasm that heralded the emergence of the new NWC. 

In his moment of excitement, Ayu had promised in his inaugural address to reposition the party for electoral victory in 2023, saying: “Our task at this auspicious moment is to return the party to the people. But to do that, the party needs to be reinvigorated, reinvented and repositioned. We are not unmindful of our missed steps and actions in the past, but we have learnt our lessons, both in government and in opposition.”

Despite its comparative measure of goodwill, however, zoning arrangement still remains a hard nut to crack. Part of the reason is the hardline position of bigwigs like Atiku who have insisted on throwing the ticket open to all aspirants.  

Going by the constitution of the party, the position of national chairman and presidency cannot go to the same zone at the same time. 

And since Ayu is from the North-central, it is expected that the presidential ticket will go to the South. But it is curious that the party has continued to dilly-dally on making a clear declaration of its position on zoning for fear of creating cracks in the fold.

It will be recalled that Atiku was the first to kick against the political arrangement following the resolution of the Southern Governors Forum that the next president of Nigeria must be a southerner. 

While speaking at the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the PDP on October 7, 2021, he maintained that the president of Nigeria could come from any region.

“The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has the right to determine its rules and how the party should be governed. The people of Nigeria also have the rights to determine who governs them.

“There is no such thing as a president from southern Nigeria or a president from northern Nigeria. There is only one — a president from Nigeria, for Nigeria and by Nigerians.

“The decision of NEC today will either see us PDP in the villa in 2023 or not. Since the inception, this party has faced serious challenges and has risen above sentiment to solve those challenges and move forward,” he declared.

In the face of all of these, stakeholders in the PDP are generally apprehensive that taking a hasty decision on zoning of presidential ticket to the North or the South could further spell doom for their parties. Besides, Ayu is a known ally of Atiku and he would not want to do anything that would hurt his interest.  

At the same time, some aggrieved members are also not taking the matter lying low, warning of the dire consequences of a breach of the arrangement.   

A concerned group, Vanguard for Justice, noted that the party was bent on zoning its presidential ticket to the North, adding that it would prompt high-profile defections in the South.

A statement signed by its Chairman, Emmanuel Nduka, reads in part: “On Monday, January 17, 2022, governors elected on the platform of Nigeria’s main opposition party, the PDP conveyed a high-powered meeting in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital. The meeting was hosted by no other than the strongman of Rivers State, Governor Nyesom Wike, and presided over by the Chairman of the PDP Governors Forum and Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal.

“According to the governors, they had converged to review the state of the nation, and chart a way forward, especially with 2023 around the corner. At the end of the meeting, the governors released a nine-point communiqué, which formed their resolutions. But beyond this, the party does not seem (cared) for 2023, or what may even precede it.

“The All Progressives Congress (APC), led by President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, has spent eight years in power. The PDP, as a party, is planning to take power back to the North again. This may prompt an already impending mass exodus of PDP members to the APC, being that they feel that the APC will zone presidential power to the South, which is the right thing to do.

“This is a wind that may blow very soon, and it will come as a rude shock to the PDP. More so, it may be the end of the PDP in Nigeria’s political space.”

The recent meeting of Southern and Middle Belt leaders also brought to the spotlight the contention for power rotation between the North and the South. Rising from an emergence meeting held in Abuja on January 7, the Forum comprising delegates of Afenifere for the Southwest, Ohanaeze Ndigbo for the Southeast, Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) for the South-South and the Middle Belt Forum (MBF) for the Middle Belt insisted that power must shift to the southern part of the country in 2023.

They argued that since the northern part of the country would have fully enjoyed the office of the president for eight years by 2023, it will be fair and just for the exalted position to shift to the South.

A communiqué issued at the end of the meeting enjoined registered political parties in the country desirous of support from the four geopolitical zones to zone their respective presidential tickets to the South.

The declaration followed the joint resolution of Northern Elders Forum (NEF) and Northern Leaders of Thought (NLT) which was held at the Arewa House, Kaduna, where they both kicked against the clamour for power shift by many Nigerians.

As more candidates step up their campaigns for the primaries, all eyes are now on the PDP for a quick resolution of this endless controversy. (Sunday Sun)